Very nice analysis and read (as always). Allow me to ask a question trying to help in your Premortem. You say that we seem to be going in the opposite direction regarding customer preferences away from glass. What makes you so confidant? I know that traditionally, people seem to prefer a glass bottle but in blind tests, it is almost impossible to know the difference in comparison to aluminum for example. Additionally, glass is very energy intensive (I know aluminum is not the perfect example of sustainability). It seems that a more sustainable bottle should be the winner in the medium/long therm. Hope I can stretch your thesis a bit. Thank you for the nice article Gonçalo. You should write more often.
You are abs right when saying glass is energy intensive, but it can also be recycled infinite times without change on its properties, and therefore general people perception is that glass is a sustainable product. However, I believe paper-based cartons are actually likely to be the most sustainable packaging all things considered. At the same time, it also gives the product a very cheap feel (bag-in-the-box, ...).
On that subject, you might want to check Verallia's CMD 2021 presentation where they show a McKinsey Packaging Survey.
Indeed, according to the McKinsey packaging survey extract (from December 2020), glass bottles and jars are ranked as being perceived in Europe as the most sustainable packaging type, in the USA they are ranked as the 2nd most sustainable. Brazil is really an outlier in this study, where glass bottles seem to be perceived as non-sustainable at all. Curiously is were Vidrala is expanding their operations. Anyway, the study gives me some comfort regarding the future of glass. On the other hand, looking at VID fundamentals, I am not comfortable with the valuation at this price point, but this definitely goes to my watchlist. Thank you for your answer Gonçalo. Cheers
Fantastic article Gonçalo! I know you like Exor, that would also he an incredible option for a staying rational thesis! Keep up the good work, thanks for these pearls.
Ahah Yes, I just saw it, thanks and congratulations on owning that one! Unfortunately I don't own the stock as I have not yet investigated the company well enough, but it does seem that the management thinks they are undervalued right now.
Very nice analysis and read (as always). Allow me to ask a question trying to help in your Premortem. You say that we seem to be going in the opposite direction regarding customer preferences away from glass. What makes you so confidant? I know that traditionally, people seem to prefer a glass bottle but in blind tests, it is almost impossible to know the difference in comparison to aluminum for example. Additionally, glass is very energy intensive (I know aluminum is not the perfect example of sustainability). It seems that a more sustainable bottle should be the winner in the medium/long therm. Hope I can stretch your thesis a bit. Thank you for the nice article Gonçalo. You should write more often.
Thank you for the kind words, Diogo!
You are abs right when saying glass is energy intensive, but it can also be recycled infinite times without change on its properties, and therefore general people perception is that glass is a sustainable product. However, I believe paper-based cartons are actually likely to be the most sustainable packaging all things considered. At the same time, it also gives the product a very cheap feel (bag-in-the-box, ...).
On that subject, you might want to check Verallia's CMD 2021 presentation where they show a McKinsey Packaging Survey.
Indeed, according to the McKinsey packaging survey extract (from December 2020), glass bottles and jars are ranked as being perceived in Europe as the most sustainable packaging type, in the USA they are ranked as the 2nd most sustainable. Brazil is really an outlier in this study, where glass bottles seem to be perceived as non-sustainable at all. Curiously is were Vidrala is expanding their operations. Anyway, the study gives me some comfort regarding the future of glass. On the other hand, looking at VID fundamentals, I am not comfortable with the valuation at this price point, but this definitely goes to my watchlist. Thank you for your answer Gonçalo. Cheers
Fantastic article Gonçalo! I know you like Exor, that would also he an incredible option for a staying rational thesis! Keep up the good work, thanks for these pearls.
Muito obrigado Luís. I do like Exor, it's a fantastic holding co, and plan to do a write-up on it in due time.
Great timing on commenting on Exor, Luís. They just announced a tender offer of €750m as part of a new €1bn buyback.
Ahah Yes, I just saw it, thanks and congratulations on owning that one! Unfortunately I don't own the stock as I have not yet investigated the company well enough, but it does seem that the management thinks they are undervalued right now.