Feb 4, 2023·edited Feb 4, 2023Liked by Gonçalo Garcia
Ibersol was a tremendous pick for your first equity research post on substack. I would like to congratulate you on your analysis, specifically in highlighting the alignment of management and minority shareholder’s interests. I am both an Ibersol and Semapa shareholder and I hope that you in the future analyze the alignment issues present in Semapa between minority shareholders and management/Sodim.
Avid listener of your podcast and now reader of this substack!
Obrigado Francisco! Great idea, I am sure I will do a Semapa analysis at some point in the future with a focus on minority shareholders and capital allocation.
Regarding Ibersol future strategy/capital allocation, do you think that a majority of future CapEx will be deployed in the development of the Pret A Manger franchise chain in Portugal and Spain? I think this would figure as a good option given that the other group franchise brands like KFC, Pizza Hut, Pans are in their late stages of growth.
I believe most will go Taco Bell, KFC and all the new airport concessions. Let's see how Pret A Manger does but I think they will scale it slowly as at this point it's still unproven in Iberia. They will test concepts and adjust the capital allocation accordingly.
Thank you for your insights Gonçalo. I have found some difficulties in obtaining guidance/strategy updates from Ibersol management and your viewpoints have helped a lot.
Great first analysis Gonçalo. It’s great to see someone analyzing local companies,using local understanding and feeling the ground of the location of those businesses! 👏
Mckinsey's Valuation book it THE reference. But... it is way more technical than it needs to be. More and more I think the main focus should be on understanding the economic reality of the company and their true owner's earnings and not so much on the preciseness of the valuation.
Two books that helped me enormously on understanding accounting are: Quality of Earnings, 1987, Financial Shenanigans, 2017 (The first is an easier read and both focus on identifying the bad stuff)
Hey Gonçalo, thanks for this really interesting piece. I really enjoy learning from you and benefited from your insights on vidrala. Thank you.
Regarding this, what do you expect the future pe to be?
Are you planning on holding it after it distributes the dividend, if they opt to go that way?
I also have a question regarding this part:
the usual withholding tax in Portugal is 28% but can be as high as 35% if the account is in street name (as it happens with accounts in Interactive Brokers). What do you mean by being in street name ? I am Portuguese and live in Barcelona, Spain where I should pay 19% (i think I'm not making more than 6k realized gains). Do we have to use a special bureaucratic agreement?
Thank you very much for this again, looking forward to hearing from you regarding vidrala!
You mentioned Vidrala twice on a post about Ibersol. You must really be looking forward to it. It's indeed a very special (but simple and boring) company. Too bad its share price has run so much lately.
Re. PE, it really depends what they will do with the cash and whether they keep a massive cash position or not.
Re. Dividends taxes: Street name means the broker has your account in a jumbo account* and when the account is not in a identified name, the tax is 35%. I am not a tax advisor nor an expert but the 19% you mention is the WHT** for dividends that Spanish companies pay. What's relevant in this case is the 28% (or the 35%), then you can try to recover these taxes using the tax agreement between Portugal and Spain (can't help you there but I suspect it takes time).
*Jumbo account = big account at the custodian bank with several individual accounts
**WHT = withhold taxes are taxes at are keep at source. Then what you end up paying depends on your circumstances and your country of residence.
Ibersol was a tremendous pick for your first equity research post on substack. I would like to congratulate you on your analysis, specifically in highlighting the alignment of management and minority shareholder’s interests. I am both an Ibersol and Semapa shareholder and I hope that you in the future analyze the alignment issues present in Semapa between minority shareholders and management/Sodim.
Avid listener of your podcast and now reader of this substack!
Obrigado Francisco! Great idea, I am sure I will do a Semapa analysis at some point in the future with a focus on minority shareholders and capital allocation.
Regarding Ibersol future strategy/capital allocation, do you think that a majority of future CapEx will be deployed in the development of the Pret A Manger franchise chain in Portugal and Spain? I think this would figure as a good option given that the other group franchise brands like KFC, Pizza Hut, Pans are in their late stages of growth.
I believe most will go Taco Bell, KFC and all the new airport concessions. Let's see how Pret A Manger does but I think they will scale it slowly as at this point it's still unproven in Iberia. They will test concepts and adjust the capital allocation accordingly.
Thank you for your insights Gonçalo. I have found some difficulties in obtaining guidance/strategy updates from Ibersol management and your viewpoints have helped a lot.
Boas Gonçalo, venho através do All In Stocks e quero congratular-te pela iniciativa.
Boas pesquisas e investimentos!
Um grande abraço
Obrigado Nuno! Abraço!
Great first analysis Gonçalo. It’s great to see someone analyzing local companies,using local understanding and feeling the ground of the location of those businesses! 👏
Since I am giving it a local flavour, it made sense to start with a restaurants operator, right? :)
Obrigado, Jorge!
One little off topic question, do you have a suggestion of a book about companies valuation? Let’s say, your bible! Boa sorte para este projeto ✌️
Mckinsey's Valuation book it THE reference. But... it is way more technical than it needs to be. More and more I think the main focus should be on understanding the economic reality of the company and their true owner's earnings and not so much on the preciseness of the valuation.
Two books that helped me enormously on understanding accounting are: Quality of Earnings, 1987, Financial Shenanigans, 2017 (The first is an easier read and both focus on identifying the bad stuff)
Thanks, will check those. I am more of a technical analysis guy but willing to add some fundamental knowledge ✌️
would you like to write an update?
Hey Gonçalo, thanks for this really interesting piece. I really enjoy learning from you and benefited from your insights on vidrala. Thank you.
Regarding this, what do you expect the future pe to be?
Are you planning on holding it after it distributes the dividend, if they opt to go that way?
I also have a question regarding this part:
the usual withholding tax in Portugal is 28% but can be as high as 35% if the account is in street name (as it happens with accounts in Interactive Brokers). What do you mean by being in street name ? I am Portuguese and live in Barcelona, Spain where I should pay 19% (i think I'm not making more than 6k realized gains). Do we have to use a special bureaucratic agreement?
Thank you very much for this again, looking forward to hearing from you regarding vidrala!
You mentioned Vidrala twice on a post about Ibersol. You must really be looking forward to it. It's indeed a very special (but simple and boring) company. Too bad its share price has run so much lately.
Re. PE, it really depends what they will do with the cash and whether they keep a massive cash position or not.
Re. Dividends taxes: Street name means the broker has your account in a jumbo account* and when the account is not in a identified name, the tax is 35%. I am not a tax advisor nor an expert but the 19% you mention is the WHT** for dividends that Spanish companies pay. What's relevant in this case is the 28% (or the 35%), then you can try to recover these taxes using the tax agreement between Portugal and Spain (can't help you there but I suspect it takes time).
*Jumbo account = big account at the custodian bank with several individual accounts
**WHT = withhold taxes are taxes at are keep at source. Then what you end up paying depends on your circumstances and your country of residence.
Thanks for your response. Yes xD I never missed an episode of the allin stocks podcast, and delved a bit on vidrala after hearing your thoughts there.
Interesting